What I do when I have no clue

How I apply the 'hypothesis mindset' to help me find the plot.

Anna Mackenzie

May 08, 2025

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Over the past few weeks I’ve almost hurled my laptop off our apartment rooftop approximately 17 times.

I’m fine. Everything’s fine. I’m just scaling a digital product for the first time and there are a lot of unknown unknowns. Paid marketing, pixels, cold audiences, ROAS, A/B testing, Google tags, attribution, Advantage+ campaigns…the list goes on. Who knew things could get so technical?

It’s a nice problem to have, I’ll admit, but lately I’ve been feeling so out of my depth that I’ve almost lost the plot. It doesn’t help that Meta temporarily banned my account, Meta customer service refuses to serve its customers, and Meta is generally a bit of a douchebag.

In moments of frustration I’ve wanted to throw up my arms and throw in the towel, but I haven’t, because admitting defeat will get me nowhere. Losing the plot will get me nowhere. Catapulting my MacBook off the roof will get me nowhere except right back at Apple sheepishly handing over $3000 of hard-earned cash.

So instead of raging against my machine I’m doing what I typically do when I have no clue. I’m using the ‘hypothesis mindset’ to move me forward.

The hypothesis mindset

You have three choices when something doesn’t go to plan:

Lose the plot (freak out, shut down, tap out)
Pause the plot (list out options A-Z and action none of them for roughly 6-12 months)
Find the plot (apply the hypothesis mindset)

The hypothesis mindset is an action-based approach to building momentum whether you’ve lost the plot entirely or never knew where it was to begin with.

Here’s how it works:

Name what you don’t know

When you’re struggling to figure out your next move, start by articulating where you’re stuck. What’s the problem? What’s not working? What needs diagnosing?

Personally, I don’t know how to run Meta ads that convert. I don’t know how much I should be spending. I don’t know how to market to cold audiences. I also don’t know what I don’t know, ya know?

Form a hypothesis

Next, cast aside the need to know what is true and follow your hunch about what might be true.

My working hypothesis is that my ads aren’t landing because the messaging is off and/or cold audiences don’t know what a portfolio career is (meaning my digital product - The Portfolio Career OS - means nothing).

Run a low stakes experiment

Once you’ve formed a hypothesis, it’s time to experiment. During this phase the objective isn’t to succeed per se, but to learn. The philosophy is curiosity, not certainty. The goal is to collect data. To gather insights. To validate or invalidate your hunch.

Meta is built for this type of quick experimentation and I’m deeeeeep in it (if you’ve been slammed with my ads on IG, soz about it). I’ve dedicated a decent budget to answering just one question: what actually stops the scroll?

Watch what happens

The final phase involves sitting back, observing from a distance and analysing results as they emerge. What worked? What didn’t? What can you tweak? What’s next?

Right now I’m watching my ads like a mad scientist. I’m tracking which creative gets clicks, which copy converts and which combos get ignored. I’m seeking clues, spotting patterns and establishing a baseline. While I’m far from figuring it out, at least I’m on the move.

Find your plot

I don’t know whether Meta ads will be worth my time. I don’t know if I’ll figure out how to bring new people into my world through paid marketing. I simply don’t know. But not knowing right now isn’t a good enough reason to get stuck forever, nor is it a reason to throw my toys out of the pram. Instead, it’s an opportunity to hypothesise. To posit. To expect failure but hope for more.

This is the power of the hypothesis mindset. It gives you permission to act without certainty. To try without conviction. To give it a crack even though you haven’t the faintest clue.

Because when you decide that not knowing ≠ not doing, things change. When you hypothesise rather than assume, you discover. You find an inkling, a clue, a thread, a result, a certainty, an answer, a question, or a twist so wildly unexpected that the plot you were searching for doesn’t just get found.

It thickens.

Hey friends! A quick note from me to you:

Next month I’m trialling something new - it’s called the Portfolio Career Operating System Sprint Month. It’s a focused implementation month designed to help you set the OS up properly from the get go, power through your questions as they come up, and build momentum from day one.

It includes:

The full Portfolio Career OS (if you don’t have it already)
4x group accountability and Q&A calls with Anna (that’s me!)
Access to a new private online community so you can connect with other OS users building portfolio careers just like you, and seek feedback, share progress and request future product updates

If you’ve been on the fence about the OS and feel like you need a little extra support and accountability while getting it up and running, this is for you. Join the waitlist and I’ll share more details next week.

Join the waitlist

PS. if you don’t know what the OS is, check it out here.

My hypothesis approach in action:

How I’m using it to test paid marketing
How I’m using it to test a product extension, the OS Sprint Month
How one of my mentees is using it to test a side income stream to help him pivot into a totally new domain

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🫶🏼 When you’re ready, here are three ways I can help:

Free Training: Stabilise, Systemise and Scale Your Portfolio Career in 2025: learn the inbound and outbound acquisition strategies to generate a consistent flow of leads and grow your income, and the workflows to that will help you increase capacity beyond your time.
The Portfolio Career Operating System: a fully fledged system for people who do multiple things and want to do them well.
Portfolio Career Mentoring: 1-1 sessions to help you get started and build a career that sits at the intersection of freedom, creative fulfilment, meaning and money.